Main Points of Bilateral Ties:
After the first government of Taliban, India increased its ties with common Afghanis in the era between 2002 to 2021. Majority of common Afghanis have enmity with Pakistan over several matters; India exploits such sentiments in order to further ties with the people of Afghanistan.
Now they are enhancing its ties with the Taliban regime unlike the past. People to people connection and projection of soft power in Afghanistan are the major goals of India.
India have geopolitical motives in Afghanistan. It wants excess to Central Asian republics via Afghanistan. Similarly, minimizing role of Pakistani military establishment in Afghanistan and neutrality of afghan Taliban stance regarding Kashmir issue are also the major objectives.
Taliban showed their willingness to avail defense cooperation with India. Mullah Yaqoob showed such interests on various occasions.
Increase ties in health sector. Assisted Afghanistan with various medical facilities in the past two years. Various vaccines of TB and Covid-19 etc.
Cooperation in food security; provided 40000 metric tons’ wheat in 2022 via Pakistan and 20000 metric tons’ wheat via Iran in 2023.
Cooperation in infrastructural development; Taliban government requested India to complete 20 incomplete projects across the country.
India wants to cooperate with the Taliban in the sector of counter terrorism, in order to avoid Afghanistan as a safe haven for terrorist organizations; which otherwise hurt India’s interests.
Haqqani network decreasing its dependence on Pakistan; instead they want more engagement with India.
Current Issues between Afghan Taliban and Pakistan:
- Afghan Taliban sheltering TTP, which is major anti-Pakistan terrorist outfit.
- Stressful situation on border with Afghanistan. (Durand Line).
Unlike past, this time Taliban are more pragmatic to establish relations with India, which increase worries on Pakistani side.
Implications for Pakistan:
The increasing India and Taliban ties have several significant implications for Pakistan.
- India is playing the role of spoiler for Pakistan’s interests and influence in Afghanistan. In the past two years, Pakistan rejected two Indian summits on Afghanistan by declaring India as spoiler rather than peacemaker.
- Taliban are decreasing their dependence on Pakistan; thus, Pakistan’s hopes of gaining its geostrategic interests in Afghanistan are declining.
- Indian intelligence agency RAW, possible attempts to regain ground on Afghan’s soil may bring fresh support to anti-Pakistan terrorist movements such as TTP and ISKP. This will further intensity terrorist insurgencies in Pakistan, especially in the areas of western border. (Security Concerns).
- Increase Indian presence on Afghan soil will impact Pakistan’s desires of regional connectivity and geo-economic interests. It will be very difficult for Pakistan to balance India’s factor in the region, especially in Afghanistan.
- Pakistan’s policy of “strategic depth” will face serious challenges in the wake of India’s increasing influence in Afghanistan.
Policy Options for Pakistan:
- To adopt more pragmatic approach and bring balance in relations with India and Afghanistan.
- Pakistan needs to reengage Taliban regime in a new fresh way in order to avoid negative implications of Taliban and India increasing ties.
- Unless and until there is no direct implications of India-Taliban relations on Pakistan, the latter should accept the changing regional dynamics wholeheartedly.
- Pakistan needs to review its old ideological stance regarding Afghanistan issue and adopt more practical approach. This new approach should be based on bilateral interests and win-win situation. More pragmatic and practical approach to avoid zero sum game at any level and side.
- Pakistan should engage regional actors on Afghanistan issue. Role of regional players such as China and Russia may be important in this regard; therefore, Pakistan should engage them over the matter.
- Work should be done to increase people to people contact and track two diplomacy, in order to counter mistrust and enhance cooperation in various sectors.
- Rather than assuming Afghan Taliban as a mere proxy, this time Pakistan should consider it as a state and adopt realistic policies in interacting them.
