Since the beginning of the insurgencies in the North western parts of Pakistan; the security establishment, on one side conducted intense military operations and on the other, attempted peaceful negotiations. There are several attempts of the peace talks in the past; which went parallel alongside the hard core military strategies of the Pakistani security forces. However, these talks didn’t reach to long-lasting and sustainable results because of a number of reasons. Most recently, the establishment launched negotiations with the leadership of the Pakistani Taliban; in which the Afghanistan’s administration is playing a mediatory role. Despite several positive gestures from the both sides, there are a number of national and international constraints which bring these peace talks into a very complex and ambiguous position. Such circumstances minimize the chances of a result oriented outcome of such talks.
In a situation when the Afghan Taliban governs Afghanistan and the US allied forces are exited from the land-locked country; a fruitful negotiation with the TTP is the need of the hour. However, Pakistan faces severe international pressure in this regard. Pakistan comes across a number of hurdles, when it comes to the dealing with the Financial Action Task Force; the international financial watch dog. Pakistan has been put on monitoring several time under the Banner of FATF as the former is usually blamed for insufficient measures against terrorist organizations. Currently, the TTP is declared banned by the government of Pakistan, and it is one of the major demands of the TTP negotiation Team, to lift the ban from the terrorist outlet. Moreover, it demands for a safe settlement of their armed groups on the territory of Pakistan. Keeping the militancy of the past and pressure of international organizations in mind, it will be nearly impossible for Pakistan to fulfil the mentioned demands of the TTP. Further, the US will have strong influence on the talks as it has pushed Pakistan on ‘Do More’ numerous times in the matter of dealing terrorist organizations.
Similarly, the deepest and impactful relation and alliance is that of the common ideology and shared sentiments. The TTP and Afghan Taliban have that close and strong bond of religion, ideas and brotherhood. Although it is a fact that the Afghan Taliban is pushing the TTP for a peaceful settlement with the Pakistan, yet it will never want to fully weaken its ideological ally. Currently, the Afghan regime is politically isolated; therefore, it is greatly dependent on Pakistan. Keeping its weak, isolated and dependent position on Pakistan in front, Taliban has no other choice but to compel the TTP on the table talks. But one thing is for sure that the Taliban regime in Afghanistan will definitely want engagement with the other regional power in order to decrease its dependency on Pakistan; which is directly proportional to its independency in decision making. The Mullah Yaqob, afghan defense Minister’s statement regarding interaction with India is a major example in this regard. Once the Taliban minimize its dependency on Pakistan; it may think otherwise regarding the matter of TTP.
There are several factions within the TTP which believe on extreme approach against Pakistan. For instance, Abdul Wali aka Omar Khalid Khorasani has strong influence on certain groups of the TTP and is one of the founding member of the organization; who is known for his strong opposition towards the recent talks. Although he remains silent in the ongoing peace talks, yet he always wants a harsh approach against Pakistani security forces. Similarly, a number of the fighters have detached from the TTP and allied with the Islamic State of Khorasan IS-K. Overall the IS-K will never want a constructive peace deal between Pakistan and the TTP, as the later situation will leave the hard core Salafi group extremely vulnerable.
More importantly, there are several internal constraints which will be proven major obstacles in front of permanent settlement between TTP and Pakistan. For instance, the Pakistani Taliban’s conditions of reducing the number of the security forces in the tribal areas and reverse of the FATA Merger, are some of the matters which cannot be addressed in a black and white way. Pakistan has a number of strategic, social and political objectives; therefore, it neither reduces its troops nor it reverses the merger. Moreover, there are certain political forces and public voices which have their concerns over the recent peace talks between TTP and Security Establishment. These aspects may be barriers in concluding a long term and effective peace deal with the TTP, and things will become more clear in the coming weeks.
