Recent Developments Between KSA and Iran and its Various Implications

Introduction:

Historical background of their rivalry; ideological differences (Shia-Sunni conflict), Plus Regional struggle for power in Middle East; proxy wars in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon etc.

• Recent Developments:
• Agreement for the restoration of diplomatic ties; with the help of China.
• Both powers agree to fulfil several obligations such as, respect their sovereign status, non-interference in internal affairs, collective work for enhancement of ties in various fields such as, economic, science, technology, sports and culture etc.     
• Since 2016, both Nations is again entering into diplomatic ties.
• Both regional powers withdrew their diplomatic missions in the past; when a protest attacked KSA diplomatic mission in Tehran. It was because KSA executed prominent Shia Muslim leader Nimr-al-Nimr.

• Various Prospects in the future:

• Only first step of trust between the two regional powers. Many more are needed.
• It gives indication that 21^st century is the century of Asia. Role of the west is undermining and Asia is deciding its own fate by itself.
• This may become a foundation for a long lasting and sustained dialogue between the two rivals, over various economic, political, social and strategic issues.
• First step towards de-escalation of ending civil wars in the region. However, there are other causes to these civil wars and conflicts in the various parts of the region such as, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria etc; thus, it may bring decrease in the conflicts, yet it wouldn’t be able to fully de-escalate the tensions.

Opportunity to abandon side picking approach and choose multilateralism. 

Reduction in Tension:

can reduce violence and tension in the region; especially in Yemen. KSA can get rid of the war in Yemen against Iran-backed Houthis.

It may also help in bringing political stability in Lebanon.

A major development in reducing overall tension in the region; which will have positive impacts for all players, including China and US. Smoothening of ground for economic activities.

China

It is most probably the largest beneficiary of the deal. It has already economic ambitions under the belt of BRI. Now it will have more important role in the security arrangements of Persian Gulf; which will have pivotal impacts for china’s economic and strategic outreach in Middle East. (Keeping in mind Iran-China 25 years’ agreement, 2021).

This deal shows how Persian Gulf is important for china.

It is Low-risk and High-reward act for china.

China is now a credible Mediator unlike the US. China doesn’t take sides in the regional conflicts of Middle East. China Pursuing itself as a global actor/Power Broker (Real Mediator and the leading Nation).   

The United States

It has a historic role in the politics of Middle east.

Increasing influence of China will definitely hurt the US Interests. On the other hand, the US influence is decreasing. (Firstly, in civil war in Syria; the Iran-Russia interests prevailed, contrary to the US one. Now this deal will further deface US interests).

More regional engagement and support to Iran is a blow to Israel and the US; as both want to isolate Iran economically and curb its nuclear ambitions.  

So, it is a great setback to the US & Israel strategic interests in middle east.

Saudi Arabia

It shows that KSA is decreasing its dependency on the west (Especially The US).

More influenced by China; which shows its geo-economic intentions.

More independent foreign policy. 

Reflects Muhammad Bin Salman vision of sustainable KSA.

Iran

It has been put into a series of sanctions; which push the country into isolation and economic trails. This deal may bring several positive opportunities for the country, such as, enhancement in its legitimacy in the region.

Great diplomatic victory in the region for Iran in the wake of Abraham accord.

Pakistan

Pakistan’s always influenced by KSA-Iran rivalry.

KSA-Iran agreement may have some positive impacts for Pakistan.

Economic opportunities; Pakistan can utilize Gwadar, Border markets etc.