The active US-Iran conflict came to an end after the signing of an initial memorandum by both sides in Switzerland. Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Speaker Ghalibaf, along with their respective delegations, attended the ceremony. Another technical round of talks was concluded in Qatar, while the talks are temporarily suspended in the wake of the funeral of the slain Iranian Supreme Leader. The parties will soon seek a political settlement of the conflict. The conclusion of the war has raised some strategic questions about the future discourse of international politics. Apart from its implications for international politics, a significant question remains: what did Iran gain and lose in the war with the US and Israel?
First, one of Iran’s major strategic achievements is ensuring a two-phase negotiation process. It was Iran’s primary demand to address issues such as de-escalation on all fronts, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, an end to the US blockade of Iranian ports, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear talks separately. This had been a major source of deadlock, as the United States was not ready to positively consider and address Iran’s approach. However, Iran has successfully pursued its interests by securing an interim memorandum that is intended to address these issues separately over a period of 60 days. After examining the guarantees from both sides and assessing progress on the discussed matters, talks on nuclear issues will be pursued.
More importantly, despite the fact that Iran is diplomatically isolated and economically sanctioned to a great extent, it has played the Strait of Hormuz card effectively. What Iran has done with the Strait of Hormuz in terms of its blockade and its ultimate impact on global energy has created a new normal. It has now become a strategic leverage for Iran in any future conflict, despite its economic limitations and international sanctions. The Strait of Hormuz has not only increased Iran’s bargaining position but has also become a future tool for influencing international politics in general and regional politics in particular. It would not be unfair to say that Iran does not need a nuclear weapon when it has such leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. It has become a major guarantor of its survival in any future conflict.
Another significant success for Iran is avoiding regime change. Eliminating the political and military leadership at the beginning of the war was an attempt to replace Iran’s current political system with a preferred alternative. The United States wanted to install at least a pro-Western leadership in order to negotiate more favourably. However, this did not happen, and Iran’s current political leadership managed to survive. Similarly, before the war, the Iranian theological regime was under immense domestic pressure. A few months ago, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets to protest against it. They faced a severe crackdown, as a result of which hundreds of people died. However, people seem united in the aftermath of the US and Israeli attacks, and the regime has gained significant political support and legitimacy among the masses.
The recently concluded war between Iran and the US-Israel alliance has impacted the political and geostrategic dynamics of the Middle East. Alliances are likely to change. There will be new alliances, both explicit and implicit. Especially in terms of security, the regional powers will seek other options instead of, or at least alongside, the United States. This is because these regional powers felt abandoned by the US during the war and were directly exposed to what they perceived as the US’s careless approach and Iranian drone attacks. Such situations may undermine the US role in the region, which is ultimately equivalent to Iran’s success.
However, such unfolding developments will also pose security challenges to Iran because there will be new security arrangements in the Middle East. Iran’s escalation against regional countries during the conflict has raised serious concerns among those states. Under such circumstances, the new security arrangements will be Iran-centred, as these states will seek to prevent any future escalation. Overall, the war has left a significant impact on the political dynamics of the Middle East, and the region is unlikely to return to its pre-war status quo.
The author is a researcher, columnist, and the founder of Political Frontline. He holds a master degree in International Relations and has a wide experience of writing in various news forums on issues related to diplomacy, Militancy, conflict and political economy. He tweets on @BarkatViews2.