Introduction:
Over the decades, Pakistan and India have experienced hostile relations due to the issue of Kashmir. It is a debacle of nearly seven decades which has defected the political environment of south Asia in particular and that of the world in general. Although Pakistan and India fought four wars over the issue, yet the issue has become more intense since August 05, 2019. The Modi regime of India, in august 2019 abrogated article 35A and 370 of the Indian constitution; which has put serious restrictions on the autonomous status of Kashmir. The abrogation of Article 35A and 370 have disturbed the demographic, territorial and administrative status of Kashmir to the large extent.
In the beginning, Pakistan showed serious concerns and grievances over the unilateral and ultra-nationalistic moves of Modi’s regime regarding Kashmir. It highlighted the issue on various regional and international diplomatic forums and tended to make sure maximum attention towards the issue. However, slowly and gradually, Pakistan’s stance over Kashmir issue became weak and unclear. It is stated that Pakistan’s leadership and policy makers backed down over the historic issue of Kashmir; and they tend to seek some adjustment with India on it.
There are some of the significant factors; which pushed Pakistan to make a policy shift over Kashmir issue.
Main Arguments, (Factors):
Since past few years, Pakistan is backing down from its stance towards Kashmir issue. Pakistan stance became weak due to a number of reasons such as;
(A). Economic Constraints.
- After 9/11, Pakistan gradually decreased its assistance for militant groups in Kashmir due to international pressure.
- It has stopped backing Jihadi groups in Kashmir completely in past few years, because of its weak economic conditions as well as international obligations.
- Pakistan has to seek bailout program from international economic organizations such as IMF. IMF is majorly controlled by western powers especially the US and its allies; thus, the economic body put self-made restrictions on the countries which aim to gain its bailout package.
- It has to get its name out of FATF restrictions. For it, Pakistan worked on National Action plan; which aimed to disassociate the country from militant outfits and banned organizations.
Due to such international pressure and internal domestic economic crisis, Pakistan couldn’t continue its old policy of backing Mujahedeen groups in Kashmir.
(B). India-US Regional Nexus:
The US views India as a rising power to contain China in this region. The US has made a strategic alliance with India in the region and both states have conducted a series of high-level agreements in this regard. For instance, the Logistic exchange memorandum of agreements LEMOA2016, Communication Compatibility and Security agreement 2018, Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), and the latest defense agreement 2020 are some high profile strategic and military agreements between the USA and India; which show their deep understanding in the region. US is the major global power and India is one of the major powers in Asia; nexus of such important actors in Asia pacific region, has significance impacts on regional as well as global politics. This strong alliance has also limited Pakistan’s stance over Kashmir. The US always want to secure the interests of its regional partner and long term ally, i.e, India. Keeping Pakistan’s current situation in mind, Islamabad has little choice but to take regional dictation from the United States which means, that Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir is becoming limited and weak.
(C). India’s Effective Presence on International front:
Similarly, India is a raising economic power which has great economic and strategic partnerships with important international Actors such as UK, France, Japan, Russia and even China etc. These states enjoy tremendous amount of trade and regional cooperation in the various sectors; which is obviously increasing Indian influence on international front. Moreover, India also possesses significant support and effective presence on the UN forum as well. Keeping such situation in mind, it is difficult for Pakistan to pursue its hard core agenda on Kashmir issue.
(D). Pakistan’s Geo-Economic shift in foreign policy:
In the past decade and a half, a clear shift can be notice in Pakistan’s foreign policy. The continuous economic trails of Pakistan’s economy have made the authorities to reshape its foreign policy on brand new foundations. One cane notices a strategic shift in Pakistan foreign policy which is going towards geo-economic from geo-political. The Pakistani military and civil leadership have mentioned this time to time that how Pakistan is eager to adopt geo-economic agenda. They think that it is the geo-political ambitions of Kashmir and Afghanistan issue; which have kept the country economically backward. Pakistan tends to pursue its foreign policy agenda on geo-economic grounds, which is comprised of peaceful relations and economic connectivity with the hitherto adversarial neighbors, that is India. It is therefore, Pakistan has abandoned assisting armed struggle in Kashmir; and is more focused on negotiations and peace talks with India.
Implications:
This significant shift of Pakistan’s foreign policy towards Kashmir issue may have some important regional as well as domestic implications; that are discussed as under:
- It will give a sort of free hand to India in the region. India has already dominated south Asia economically, militarily as well as politically. Its increased influence on regional states such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal has almost dismantled regional organization that is SAARC. Pakistan’s move of alleged abandonment of Kashmir policy will further empower India; in terms of adopting more aggressive approach in regional issues. This may definitely disturb balance of power in the region.
- Similarly, lack of understanding and communication among decision makers over the issue may bring further misunderstanding and political turmoil in the country. In the past, it is noticed that civil and military leadership experienced disagreement over several important security issues. Keeping the past history in mind, there may exist some communication and understanding gaps in the future regarding Kashmir policy.
- Moreover, this policy may spark misunderstanding and distrust in the people of Pakistan, independent Kashmir and Indian occupied Kashmir.
- More importantly, in the past Pakistan has supported active militancy in Kashmir, in order to pursue its agenda against Indian occupied forces. In this regard, several Jihadi organizations were supported by Pakistan such as, Hizbul Mujahidin, Al-badr Mujahedeen, Jiash e Muhammad and Harkat ul Mujaheeden etc. However, due to the mentioned reasons in the paper, Pakistan backed down its approach and abandoned support for armed struggle in Kashmir. The leadership of such organizations are somehow in coordination with Pakistani establishment at some level; however, there is no proper mechanism to engage their lower rank fighters. These lower ranks combats can do nothing but fighting. They are motivated religiously and are full of Jihadi sentiments. Keeping such situation in mind, there are worries that such fighters may be religiously brainwashed and exploited by other terrorist organizations such as TTP and IS-KP. History has witnessed that in the past, such fighters from organizations like Al-badar, and Hizbul Mujahedeen joined TTP outfit in Swat, Dir, Bajawarr and other regions of the country.
Way Forward:
- Pakistan needs to focus on self-image and economic uplift. This is a long term and probably the most significant way forward. World would listen to a sustainable and self-sufficient Pakistan more, rather than a fragile and economically weak Pakistan.
- Pakistan needs to highlight humanitarian aspects of the issue more on diplomatic channels on both regional and international level.
- In order to shape any future policy regarding Kashmir, a broad consensus is extremely important. Civil and military leadership needs to build a comprehensive understanding and clarity of mind. Through this, Pakistan will be able to adopt more proactive and pragmatic approach.
- Pakistan needs to consider and value people’s will in this regard; especially, the people of occupied and Independent Kashmir, who have suffered a lot for the cause.
- Last but not the least, Pakistan should frame a comprehensive framework in order to deal those organizations; that were once involved in active struggle in Kashmir.
