Over the decades, Pakistan and India have experienced hostile relations due to the issue of Kashmir. It is a debacle of nearly seven decades which has defected the political environment of south Asia in particular and that of the world in general. Although Pakistan and India fought four wars over the issue, yet the issue has become more intense since August 05, 2019. The Modi regime of India, in august 2019 abrogated article 35A and 370 of the Indian constitution; which has put serious restrictions on the administrative and autonomous status of Kashmir. In the beginning, Pakistan showed serious concerns and grievances over the unilateral and ultra-nationalistic moves of Modi’s regime regarding Kashmir. It highlighted the issue on various regional and international diplomatic forums and tended to make sure maximum attention towards the issue. However, slowly and gradually, Pakistan’s stance over Kashmir issue became weak and unclear. It is stated that Pakistan’s leadership and policy makers backed down over the historic issue of Kashmir; and they tend to seek some adjustment with India on it.
Pakistan’s Previous Approach towards Kashmir:
Kashmir is probably the most important security issue for Pakistan; due to which Pakistan has fought four wars with India. Apart from conducting these wars, in 80s, Pakistan adopted well managed and planned approach towards Kashmir issue. Some of the key points of Pakistan’s policy are discussed as under;
- Active insurgency through jihadi proxies became an important tool for Pakistan. Pakistan game plan and strategy in Kashmir was to associate the armed struggle with the ideology of jihad in order to engage religious jihadi organizations against India.
- Pakistan’s Main aim at that time was to initiate a constant level of insurgency in the Indian occupied Kashmir; in order to attack vital targets of India and sabotage their interests in the occupied region.
- In this regard, since 1980s; Pakistan has supported active militancy in Kashmir, in order to pursue its agenda against Indian occupied forces. Several Jihadi organizations were supported by Pakistan such as, Lashkar Tayba, Hizbul Mujahidin, Al-badr Mujahedeen, Jiash e Muhammad and Harkat ul Mujahedeen etc. It provided financial, military and logistic assistance to these mujahedeen; who used to fight against the Indian aggression in Kashmir.
- Pakistan’s policy of initiating proxy war against India in occupied Kashmir greatly influenced the locals; thus, a large number of people joined the armed struggle. Burhan Wani and Afzal Guru are some of the major examples in this regard; the two famous Kashmiri fighters, who actively participated in the Kashmir war against Indian presence.
- In short, Pakistan’s initial policy towards Kashmir was to initiate proxy as well as guerilla warfare with the help of mentioned militant organizations; in order to destabilize India’s interests in Kashmir.
Recent Policy of Kashmir; A Significant Strategic Shift:
Despite pursuing hard core and aggressive policy in Kashmir for years; Pakistan remarkably brought transformation in its approach. After 9/11, Pakistan gradually stepped down from its approach; however, in the recent few years, one can witness a significant change in Pakistan policy towards Kashmir. Weak economic conditions, International political and economic pressure and Constant pressure of US on Pakistan vis-à-vis strong US-India nexus are some of the important factors; which pushed Pakistan to change its approach regarding Kashmir.
In the past few years, Pakistan’s top military and political leadership did vital meetings with the US leadership at different level; which played an important role in changing Pakistan aggressive stance towards Kashmir. For instance;
- Former chief of army staff General Qamar Bajwa visited Pentagon US. The COAS was welcomed by chairman joint chief of staff General Joseph F. Dunford. 21-gun salute was presented in the honor of Gen. Bajwa. (July, 23,2019 ISPR).
- Gen. Bajwa conducted comprehensive meetings with other officials as well, such as; Acting Secretary of defense Mr. Richard V. Spencer. (July, 23,2019 ISPR).
- He met with the Chief of staff US army, General Mark A. Milley. (July, 23,2019 ISPR).
During these meetings, detail discussions occurred on terrorism, counter terrorism, regional security and regional cooperation.
- The commander of United States Central Command (CENTCOM) General Kenneth N. McKenzie met with COAS General Bajwa on his arrival to Rawalpindi. Both sides discussed regional security issues, especially that of Indian occupied Kashmir. (September, 9, 2019. Anadolu News agency).
- US special representative for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad visit to pakistan and his meetings with Pakistan top civil and military leaderships that include; Imran Khan, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Gen. Bajwa and members of diplomatic crops. (January 21, 2019, TOLO News).
- General Bajwa visited United States, where he met with US secretary of defense Lloyd Austin and National Security Advisor Jack Sullivan; where security and peace of the region was addressed. (October 5, 2022, Aljazeera)
It is stated that in the last few years, in these meetings, different level leadership of US convinced/Influenced Pakistani leadership to back down its hard stance on Kashmir and go for a moderate approach toward the burning issue. Similarly, week Pakistan’s economy and its dependence on foreign aid is always a major obstacle in pursuing impactful foreign policy on Kashmir. Keeping Pakistan’s current situation in mind, Islamabad has little choice but to take regional dictation from the United States which means, that Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir became limited and weak.
It is therefore, Pakistan Civil and military leadership has shown several times, their willingness towards peace talks and negotiations with India on all important issues including Kashmir. Former Army Chief Gen. Bajwa expressed his desires several times regarding meaningful talks with India. (April 14, 2018, the Express Tribune). Considering such factors, Pakistan tends to pursue its foreign policy agenda on geo-economic grounds, which is comprised of peaceful relations and economic connectivity with the hitherto adversarial neighbors, that is India. It is therefore, Pakistan has abandoned assisting armed struggle in Kashmir; and is more focused on negotiations and peace talks with India.
This significant shift of Pakistan’s foreign policy towards Kashmir issue may have some important regional as well as domestic implications; that are discussed as under:
- It will give a sort of free hand to India in the region. India has already dominated south Asia economically, militarily as well as politically. Its increased influence on regional states such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal has almost dismantled regional organization that is SAARC. Pakistan’s move of alleged abandonment of Kashmir policy will further empower India; in terms of adopting more aggressive approach in regional issues. This may definitely disturb balance of power in the region. With such impactful and strong position in the region, India will never want to pursue talks with Pakistan on Kashmir issue, rather it will always show aggressive stance.
- Similarly, lack of understanding and communication among decision makers over the issue may bring further misunderstanding and political turmoil in the country. In the past, it is noticed that civil and military leadership experienced disagreement over several important security issues. Keeping the past history in mind, there may exist some communication and understanding gaps in the future regarding Kashmir policy.
- Moreover, this policy may spark misunderstanding and distrust in the people of Pakistan, independent Kashmir and Indian occupied Kashmir.
- More importantly, However, due to the mentioned reasons in the paper, Pakistan backed down its approach and abandoned support for armed struggle in Kashmir. The leadership of such organizations are somehow in coordination with Pakistani establishment at some level; however, there is no proper mechanism to engage their lower rank fighters. These lower ranks combats can do nothing but fighting. They are motivated religiously and are full of Jihadi sentiments. Keeping such situation in mind, there are worries that such fighters may be religiously brainwashed and exploited by other terrorist organizations such as TTP and IS-KP. History has witnessed that in the past, such fighters from organizations like Lashkar I Tayaba, Al-badar, and Hizbul Mujahedeen joined TTP outfit in Swat, Dir, Bajawarr and other regions of the country.
